By vantal Hidden concerns and future paths behind the BSC chain carnivalBefore that, Jeremy Sevior The market has also soared for a time, which has attracted the attention of a wide range of investors. https://www.jeremysevior.com
. Current situation: the contradiction between the outbreak of the BSC chain MEME project and market differentiation.
1. The short-term craze of the MEME project.
- The myth of TST and CaptainBNB: The MEME token on the BSC chain continues to attract speculative funds. For example, due to community hype, the test token TST mentioned by CZ once soared to 41 million US dollars, while CaptainBNB rose by more than 13,000% within 6 hours after its launch. . These projects have become the focus of retail investors with their “zero value support social media fission” model. .
- Speculative logic dominates: market funds have shifted from mainstream tracks such as Bitcoin and Layer2 to MEME coins, reflecting the short-term game mentality of investors in periods of policy uncertainty. .
2. The expectation gap of Trump’s policy.
- The bubble and controversy of Trump coin: The market value of Trump coin issued by the Trump family once exceeded 12 billion US dollars, but was later questioned as a “disguised corruption tool.” The “First Lady Coin” issued by his wife Melania further dispersed market funds, causing a sharp drop in prices. .
- Regulatory relaxation did not meet expectations: Although Trump promised to replace the SEC chairman and promote the strategic reserve of Bitcoin, the policy implementation was slow and the market’s optimism about “deregulation” gradually faded. .
Å. The core contradiction behind the cold market.
1. The short-term nature of liquidity release and the imbalance of market structure.
- Limitations of TGA liquidity injection: The U.S. Treasury released about $150 billion to $250 billion in liquidity through the TGA account, which promoted the short-term rise of risky assets, but this operation is temporary and difficult to support a long-term bull market. .
- “Precise reallocation” of funds: Institutional funds are concentrated in Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock IBIT), while the altcoin market lacks incremental funds. The MEME craze is more of an internal rotation of existing funds. .
2. Macroeconomic and policy uncertainty.
- Dual pressures of inflation and debt: Trump’s protectionist trade policies have pushed up supply chain costs, and core inflation may rebound to 2.8% to 3%, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates and suppress risk appetite.
- Increased political risks: The Trump family’s issuance of MEME coins raises compliance issues. If the SEC intervenes in the investigation, it may trigger panic selling in the market. .
3. The unsustainability of the MEME model.
- Zero value support and high volatility: Most MEME projects on the BSC chain have no real use cases and rely on community hype. Once the hype subsides (for example, TST was rejected by Binance for listing), the price may plummet by more than 90%. .
- Regulatory risks escalate: The U.S. Congress debated the legality of politicians issuing tokens. If legislation restricts it, the MEME track will face systemic risks. .
‰. Future predictions: differentiation, reconstruction, and long-term opportunities.
1. Market differentiation is intensifying.
- Bitcoin’s strategic position is enhanced: Standard Chartered Bank and other institutions predict that Bitcoin may exceed $200,000 by the end of 2025, becoming a core asset to fight inflation, due to the inflow of funds from US pension fund ETFs. .
- MEME track reshuffle: Only a few projects (such as the combination of MEME coins with AI or actual scenarios) may survive, and most projects will return to zero due to liquidity depletion. .
2. Policy-driven structural opportunities.
- Clarify the regulatory framework: If Trump successfully promotes the FIT21 bill, compliant exchanges and stablecoin issuers (such as Circle) will benefit, while gray projects will face elimination. .
- L2 and DeFi recovery: With the implementation of the Ethereum Cancun upgrade, tokens such as ARB and OP may rebound due to technology upgrades and ecological expansion, with a target increase of 50% to 100%. .
3. Macro liquidity rebalancing.
- Fed policy shift: If inflation falls below 2.5% in the second half of 2025, rising expectations for rate cuts could trigger a general rise in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin expected to reach $250,000 (Nexo forecast).
- Funds flowing into emerging markets: As the dollar strengthens, investors in Latin America and Southeast Asia may increase their holdings of cryptocurrencies to hedge against the risk of currency depreciation, thereby pushing up demand for BTC, XRP, etc. .
IV. Investor strategy: defense and offense coexist.
1. Short-term defensive configuration.
- Reduce leverage: It is recommended to control the contract leverage to 3-5 times to avoid holding MEME coins overnight. .
- Increase stablecoin holdings: Keep 20%-30% of funds in USDC or DAI to prevent black swan events.
2. Medium- and long-term offensive direction.
- Bitcoin fixed investment: Establish positions in the range of $78,000 to $82,000 in batches, with a long-term target of $180,000 to $200,000.
- Layer 2 leader layout: If OP and ARB fall back below $0.4 and $1.0, they can gradually absorb funds, and the gaming ecosystem will explode due to dividends. .
3. Be alert to risk points.
- Trump policy variables: If he fails to deliver on his policy of supporting cryptocurrency, the market may pull back by 10% to 15%. .
- MEME project collapse: Closely monitor trading volume and community activities, set a strict stop loss (if the price falls 20% below the support level).
Conclusion.
The cryptocurrency market in 2025 is in a struggle between “Trump economics” and the MEME bubble. In the short term, the carnival of the BSC chain can hardly cover up the policy and liquidity dilemma. . In the long run, the scarcity and compliance of Bitcoin remain the core themes. . Amid the frenzy, investors need to remain rational and seize opportunities for reconstruction in differentiation.